Thoughts of a mechanical engineer turned programmer turned statistical investor. Here to save you from making mistakes I made at the beginning of my investing career.

Category: trade ideas


  • Nasdaq hits June lows + trade alerts on AMZN, AAPL, V

    Nasdaq hits June lows + trade alerts on AMZN, AAPL, V

    With the nasdaq back at June lows, its time to execute what I said at the end of this post – deploy some cash. There are 3 opportunities I see today: V, AMZN, AAPL, and the way I decided to play them this time is a bit unusual, especially when looking at the rest of […]

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  • Trade alert – AMZN adjustment and TSLA increase

    Trade alert – AMZN adjustment and TSLA increase

    It may be early to say but it seems to me like the selloffs are being bought, rather than earlier this year where the rips were being sold. Look at the last 2 weeks of the nasdaq: Especially this week but also last, there seems to be significant support of the recent selloffs. In addition, […]

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  • AMZN position adjustments!!

    AMZN position adjustments!!

    So the fed spoke and the nasdaq flew up 3%. Honestly, with AMZN trading at multi-year lows, I’m actually a bit worried it will fly up from here and I won’t have the opportunity to make enough money on the way up and I will be kicking myself that I didn’t go more bullish, even […]

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  • AMZN earnings trade – follow up

    AMZN earnings trade – follow up

    Originally posted on Hab Technology:
    With amzn trading at 2800, implied volatility at 46%, the vix at 30, and earnings this evening, it’s time to do a conservative earnings trade on them. In the past year whenever AMZN neared the 2800 line it popped back up: So a it’s possible to do a very (!)…

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  • AMZN earnings trade

    AMZN earnings trade

    With amzn trading at 2800, implied volatility at 46%, the vix at 30, and earnings this evening, it’s time to do a conservative earnings trade on them. In the past year whenever AMZN neared the 2800 line it popped back up: So a it’s possible to do a very (!) conservative ratio spread for a […]

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  • VIX at 33.50!

    VIX at 33.50!

    The VIX, also called the “fear” index, above 30 is quite a rare occurrance, statistically, and for options traders who have spare cash is a great (!) buying opportunity, because options are correlated to the VIX. This means that when the VIX is high, the option premium is high, which means 2 things. First of […]

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  • MSFT and V earnings tradeS!

    MSFT and V earnings tradeS!

    Let’s add an earnings play on msft, which has come down already ~20% from its highs to 275$. The trade is the following put ratio spread: Statistically the trade has 82% probability of any profit, as long as MSFT is above 237$ on expiration, another 14% lower from here: And the point of this trade […]

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  • AMZN earnings play idea

    AMZN earnings play idea

    This looks like a potentially successful earnings play. It works because the vix is on 30 already, and AMZN is reporting earnings, so increasing stock volatility even more. Its a put 2-1 ratio spread, for a net credit of 15$ (earlier in the day when amzn was down 50$ was even more profitable). Statistically it […]

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