Thoughts of a mechanical engineer turned programmer turned statistical investor. Here to save you from making mistakes I made at the beginning of my investing career.

Tag: earnings trades


  • AMZN position adjustments!!

    AMZN position adjustments!!

    So the fed spoke and the nasdaq flew up 3%. Honestly, with AMZN trading at multi-year lows, I’m actually a bit worried it will fly up from here and I won’t have the opportunity to make enough money on the way up and I will be kicking myself that I didn’t go more bullish, even […]

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  • Weekly summary and portfolio review

    Weekly summary and portfolio review

    How do you summarize the week that just on Friday the nasdaq went down 4.2%, the VIX went up 7% ending above 33$, and where my portfolio lost 28,700$ in value? It was a hard week. In fact, in the last 2 weeks my portfolio went from 531k to 490k, so down 41k, or ~8%. […]

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  • AMZN earnings trade

    AMZN earnings trade

    With amzn trading at 2800, implied volatility at 46%, the vix at 30, and earnings this evening, it’s time to do a conservative earnings trade on them. In the past year whenever AMZN neared the 2800 line it popped back up: So a it’s possible to do a very (!) conservative ratio spread for a […]

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  • MSFT and V earnings tradeS!

    MSFT and V earnings tradeS!

    Let’s add an earnings play on msft, which has come down already ~20% from its highs to 275$. The trade is the following put ratio spread: Statistically the trade has 82% probability of any profit, as long as MSFT is above 237$ on expiration, another 14% lower from here: And the point of this trade […]

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