Thoughts of a mechanical engineer turned programmer turned statistical investor. Here to save you from making mistakes I made at the beginning of my investing career.

AMZN earnings play idea

This looks like a potentially successful earnings play.

It works because the vix is on 30 already, and AMZN is reporting earnings, so increasing stock volatility even more. Its a put 2-1 ratio spread, for a net credit of 15$ (earlier in the day when amzn was down 50$ was even more profitable).

Statistically it has a probability of any profit of 92%, so quite good I would say, and you’re clear a long as AMZN stays above 2400$, or drops less than 17%, and AMZN is already >20% off all time highs (ATH).

What do you think of the trade? Any other earnings trade ideas? Let me know in the comments.

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