Thoughts of a mechanical engineer turned programmer turned statistical investor. Here to save you from making mistakes I made at the beginning of my investing career.

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Tl;dr – In this blog I will be firstofall openly (completely FREE! no sign up for my newsletter, no buy a subscription!) sharing my current portfolio (no bullshitting here), but also discussing thoughts on investing, what I’m reading, different strategies, and more.

I don’t know of any other blogs (or investors) who are open like this, I’d love to see some if they do exist (link me in the comments!).

Now if I got your attention, you’re probably thinking “ok, but why should I even listen to you?”

So first of all, you don’t need to. But YTD in 2022, which has been a challenging year for investors, my portfolio is beating the indices by 9-17% (depending which index you choose), image below:

My portfolio 2022 YTD performance vs leading indices

Here is the post with my initial portfolio review which shows my bona fide (no paper trading here), live portfolio and all the positions I hold (subject to rapid and frequent change, which I also post about on here).

But also, if you got here, it seems you are looking for advise/direction or something that has to do with investing (I’d love to hear why and how you got here in the comments!!), and hopefully something I wrote here will be interesting to you.

I will preface a bit of my background to say that the main challenge of investing at this time (or any time really, but specifically this time), is that on the one hand there is a ton of uncertainty around the US (and global) economies (covid, the war in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, record high debt, and stocks trading at all time high multiples), but on the other hand history shows that time in the market is more successful than timing the market, and no one wants to sit out another 20% year.

I will also say that in general, I would love to be a set and forget investor, as statistics show that those people have the best returns in the long run, and thats true for 20+ year time frames, but the differences in return if you had entered at an oppertune time vs an inoppertune time are MASSIVE! And I feel that this is an inoppertune time. So the answer is to dollar average in, which is basically similar to what I’m doing, but with a couple of added edges.

So my investment strategy is to have a super defensive portfolio which will generate bare minimum returns if the market stays up (which I’m highly skeptical will happen), but will leave me a lot of room to adjust and take advantage of any pullbacks, if and when they occur.

Now a little bit of my background:

Since I was a kid I remember my dad explaining to me about this cool new investment vehicle – puts. I was 12 at the time.

Since then, I discovered that I’m highly analytical, studied mechanical engineering, was in military intelligence for 6 years where I basically did programming, and then worked as a programmer in a facial recognition startup for 3 years.

5 years ago I started managing my own investment portfolio of money my family put away for me over the years.

I would be lying if I said it was smooth sailing ever since. It was hard, it was stressful, and I actually lost a ton of money. Theres nothing like the stress of losing a lot of money to force you to buckle down, rethink, figure out what went wrong. And think I did. Over the last 5 years I had countless sleepless nights, running over option combinations, algorithms, graphs, tables, writing out python scripts, figuring out how to do better.

And honestly, for me there couldn’t have been any shortcuts. I’m super (!) analytical, I’m very confident in my abilities, and despite many smart people with a lot of experience said otherwise, I literally had to learn the lessons on my own, real money. Even paper trading wouldn’t have worked here, I would have lost interest very quickly, as nothing was on the line.

Luckily for me, I have enough left that if handled correctly, I will still make it out very rich. And here I am, 5 years later, after learning the HARD lessons on my flesh, openly sharing my opinion (and portfolio!) with whoever is here to listen, openly, for free, for now.

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