Thoughts of a mechanical engineer turned programmer turned statistical investor. Here to save you from making mistakes I made at the beginning of my investing career.

Weekly summary and portfolio review – 17 July

So these updates have gotten significanly less frequent, both because I’m super busy raising the twins and working on other projects going on in my life right now, but also because my investing strategy has slightly shifted, and I’m trying a more hands-off approach. Previously I would be glued to the market during trading hours, which honestly would usually cause me to over trade, and in general be stressed out, especially in the 2022 market we’ve had so far. I mean, literally the worst first half in 50 years has just ended.

Basically my porfolio is now made up of short put positions, 1.5+ years out, which are mostly time premium, waiting to expire. I also have plenty of cash on the side to deploy if the market goes down another 20%.

So lets first of all show a graph of the portfolio performance thus far, and then I’ll go over the actual positions:

YTD portfolio perfornance

So down 6.4%, with the nasdaq -26% (!!!) and the s&p down 19% is not bad. Lets look at the actual positions:

AAPL – short 100, 105$ puts – on track to expire worthless as long as aapl doesnt go down another 30% from here. This is also a tiny position, so would love for aapl to go down so I can double down on this position…

ADBE – Same as above

AMZN – So here I have a relatively big position (180k in margin req), where the LEAP 100$ puts are on track to expire worthless.. The short August 122.5$ puts are leftover from last weeks roll where I rolled the July 125 puts to Aug 122.5$ puts for a 2000$ credit… Which all this as well was left over from a double covered bear put position. Overall the current amazon positions are showing 3,300$ of paper losses, but over 2022 I have 1200$ of REALIZED gains on AMZN. Assuming AMZN can’t get over 122$ by Aug expirations (likely), I will need to roll the position forward a couple of months, which I will hopefully be able do to do for another small credit, while the 100$ LEAP puts decay, and this position works itself out.

FDX – On track to expire worthless, despite showing paper losses of 500$

GBTC – I actually bought another 50 shares so that I’m holding 100 shares – an insignificant amount, but lets see how bitcoin plays out. I would close this position on a BTC bounce and potentially just buy some crypto outright instead of holding the greyscale fund.

GOLD – This position is messed up, earlier in the year GOLD was as high as 23$.. I didn’t close the position then, I think they are currently undervalued, especially in the current macro conditions. Either way, 23$ isn’t an unrealistic goal – lets see how this plays out.

GOOG – On track to expire, and is a small position

ICCM – this is a low probability high reward type play on a biomedical company. A full loss on this wouldn’t be significant to my portfolio.

JETS – as travel comes back hopefully will pop a bit

KKR – On track to expire worthless

LMT – same

META (FB) – they took a beating this year, I opened this position after they reported last earnings and crashed. Still they continued to go down, but still most of this position is time premium which even if they dont go up much from here will decay over the next 2 years.

MTCH – I think online dating is where this world is going, so despite current performance, hopefully this company will grow. I’m perfectly comfortable doubling down on this position as well as its only a 21k$ margin req.

RIVN – GREEN!!! MY ONLY GREEN POSITION!! Kind of crazy, who knows what will happen with this company, but because I only opened this position later this year after RIVN was already beaten down, I guess just time premium decayed and were GREEN!!! Not a huge deal either way, this is just a 2k$ gamble position, not going to make or break my portfolio either way.

TGT – also a (relatively) recent position (2mos), currently showing 200$ loss so basically even, but on track to expire as long as TGT doesn’t go down another 33% from here..

TSLA – Big paper losses but on track to expire worthless as long as TSLA doesn’t go down (another) 40% from here.

V – MY SECOND GREEN POSITION!! The 2 short 150$ puts are also a relatively recent position, but the double covered BPS is old, and is green just because V is such a BEAST company. They literally only go up and to the right. This is (another) reminder that on (basically any) pullback V is a BUY!!! I mean, check out their 10 year chart:

So thats the update.. I’m only ~50% invested (even a bit less) so honeslty I would be looking to increase my exposure if the VIX goes back up towards 30… We do seem to have some support at 11,500 on the nasdaq:

Lets see what the next quarter brings.

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