Thoughts of a mechanical engineer turned programmer turned statistical investor. Here to save you from making mistakes I made at the beginning of my investing career.

Mid August update

We went as high as 6.7% green YTD last week, although we’ve tapered off now to only ~5%:

YTD performance

Still, a lot better than the nasdaqs -19% performance.

I did do a few trades over the past 2 weeks, because I was skeptical of the rally and I wanted to free up some cash to deploy if we do get a pullback (which we seem to be getting):

last 30 days trades

VIX – This was a hedge which didn’t work out, so lost $1100 on it.

V – I reported about this in this post.

AMZN – rolled the 20 Jan24 to Jun24 puts for 3k$ credit and also closed the Sep 120$ puts for $870 which freed up a bunch of margin.

RIVN – closed the short puts I sold a while ago for a small profit. I did this because I realized the position is insignificant in my portfolio, and I don’t want it to ever be significant, because I don’t have faith in the company necessarily succeeding. I want to feel comfortable doubling down and doubling down again, several times, on any company in my portfolio if they go against me. Which I do in big tech, because lets be honest – they aren’t going anywhere, whereas RIVN could fail, and if I doubled down on them several times until they are a significant holding in my portfolio, then I stand to lose a lot of money.

So I will be looking to trim some of my positions, namely in FDX, ADBE, KKR if I get the opportunity, the rest of my positions I feel quite confident in. All of them are on track for success, so I’ll let time do its thing, and close the positions if the opportunity arises.

Ill post a snapshot of my current portfolio as I haven’t done it in a bit I don’t think (right click -> open in new tab to see a larger image):

Interesting to note is that I currently have 25.5k$ of realized gains in 2022. My positions are showing 17k$ paper losses, and 6k$ YTD green overall. Now, most of my positions are on track to expire worthless, but even if they don’t expire worthless, if they expire for even (ie no loss, no gain), I will will have made my 25k$ in gains which I’ve already realized. And its likely that at least some of my positions will expire worthless (most are on track for that), so theres still a good amount of money to be gained.

If the market continues going down towards May/June/July lows, I will be in a much better position to deploy more cash, as I’m currently less than 50% invested, and I’m already green for the year, so I can afford to be slightly more aggressive re-deploying some money. In fact, I almost hope we continue going a bit lower so I can open some positions to hopefully make some more money.

Well see how the month unfolds.

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